Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Is Difficult To Maintain High Profit This Year

- Jun 18, 2019-

"Despite the downward pressure on the global economy in 2018, China's nitrogen fertilizer industry has intensified the supply-side structural reform and accelerated the elimination of backward production capacity, and achieved very good results. The total profit of the whole industry was 10.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 471.4%; The profit margin was 5%, an increase of 4 percentage points year-on-year, and achieved the best benefit in the past ten years. But this year the national nitrogen fertilizer industry has more uncertain factors, and the market is running at a low level.” Gu Zongqin, chairman of the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, recently The working conference held by the association pointed out.

Advanced production capacity improvement

Gu Zongqin pointed out that in recent years, the nitrogen fertilizer industry has focused on eliminating backwardness, optimizing stocks, expanding quality increments, and continuously promoting the optimization and upgrading of production capacity, and achieved remarkable results.

According to the statistics of China National Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, by the end of 2018, the national synthetic ammonia production capacity totaled 68.89 million tons/year, a year-on-year decrease of 4.54 million tons/year; urea production capacity totaled 69.54 million tons/year, a year-on-year decrease of 3.22 million tons/year, overcapacity There has been a big change. At the same time, with capacity replacement and high-quality new capacity put into production, the production capacity of advanced coal gasification technology has further increased. As of 2018, the production capacity of synthetic ammonia using advanced coal gasification technology was 24.85 million tons/year, accounting for 37.2% of the total production capacity, an increase of 3.5 percentage points; the urea production capacity using advanced coal gasification technology was 25.49 million tons/year, accounting for the total production capacity. 36.7%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points. The production capacity of synthetic ammonia and urea in the traditional coal gasification process is further reduced.

Industry benefits improved

According to the statistics of China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, the average ex-factory price of urea in 2018 was 1,941 yuan/ton, up 20.8% year-on-year.

Gu Zongqin pointed out that overall, the benefits of China's nitrogen fertilizer industry have improved significantly. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2018, there were 53 enterprises with nitrogen fertilizer losses, a decrease of 37 year-on-year; the industry's loss was 26.4%, down 11.4 percentage points year-on-year; the loss of loss-making enterprises was 5.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year loss of 7.65 billion yuan; The total amount was 10.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 471.4%; the main income profit rate was 5%, an increase of 4 percentage points year-on-year.

Gu Zongqin said that in 2018, China's nitrogen fertilizer industry has gone out of the "shadow" and achieved normalization, and achieved the best benefits in the past 10 years.

Increased production of high-efficiency fertilizer

According to the monitoring of the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, in 2018, the country produced a total of 56.12 million tons of synthetic ammonia, down 1.4% year-on-year; nitrogen fertilizer production was 38.09 million tons (purified), down 2.3% year-on-year; urea production was 52.07 million tons (physical quantity), It was down 2.4% year-on-year. Although nitrogen fertilizer production is still decreasing in 2018, the extent of the decrease is decreasing and tends to be stable.

It is also worth noting that the production of high-efficiency fertilizers in nitrogen fertilizer products increased significantly last year. According to the statistics of China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, the whole industry produced 2.17 million tons of high-efficiency urea in 2018, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%. Among them, the output of humic acid-containing urea was 680,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%.

Industrial consumption growth

According to the calculation of China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, the apparent consumption of nitrogen fertilizer in 2013 was 33.56 million tons (pure nitrogen), a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year; the apparent consumption of urea was 49.9 million tons, up 2.1% year-on-year.

In terms of industrial consumption, in addition to the reduction in demand for urea by some wood-based panel enterprises due to environmentally limited production, the demand for boiler flue gas denitration in coal-fired power plants, building materials industries, and urea for diesel vehicles has increased significantly, and industrial consumption has continued to grow.

According to the statistics of China National Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, industrial ammonia consumption was 22.17 million tons in 2018, up 2.4% year-on-year, accounting for 38.9% of the total industry consumption; industrial urea consumption was 16.8 million tons, up 7.9% year-on-year; industrial consumption of nitrogen fertilizer ( Urea + ammonium nitrate was 9.46 million tons of pure nitrogen, an increase of 8.8%.

Late low position operation

According to Gao Li, deputy secretary-general of the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, in 2019, the safety and environmental protection policy will be tightened, and the nitrogen fertilizer production capacity will still face the exit, the operating rate will remain low, while the main downstream agricultural consumption will continue to decrease, coupled with the increase in the uncertainty of import and export trade. It is expected that the nitrogen fertilizer market will operate at a low level this year, and the economic benefits are not as good as last year.

The operating data of the nitrogen fertilizer industry in the first quarter also confirmed this market research judgment.

Relevant data show that in the first quarter, the main business income of the nitrogen fertilizer industry was 50.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%; the total profit was 820 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 62.3%.

We will present the profit summary of NPK, WSF, CAN, DAP, FCMP, SOP, KDP, MOP, Organic-Inorganic Compound Fertilizers, Water soluble fertilizers in the first half of this year.