July Urea Market Trend

- Jul 16, 2019-

On July 1st, India's MMTC bidding was opened. The minimum CFR of 292.63~295.97 USD/ton is lower than the current domestic and international price level, and the bidding volume of 2.8 million tons seems to bring negative impact to the market. However, starting from the 2nd, China may have a winning bid of 200,000 tons from the very beginning, and then to 600,000 tons, and then it is rumored that there are millions of tons (the number of scalars in the mark is 1.8 million tons). This number is shocking to the domestic support, and it also brings good benefits to the domestic urea market.

From the start of domestic urea in July to see the supply situation: the urea production of the current maintenance of the company is basically concentrated in the middle, Nissan is expected to rebound in the third week of July. However, due to the three companies to be repaired in the second week, Nissan maintained its current level of fluctuations. In the same period of last year, domestic urea production fell significantly, but most of the repaired enterprises have had overhaul or minor repairs in the first half of this year, so the possibility of a sharp drop in Nissan in July is relatively small. It is estimated that Nissan may fall below 150,000 tons in mid-July and will rebound slightly in the latter half of the year, but the Nissan level is still high.

In the first half of the year, the supply of urea was about 200,000 tons less than last year. From July to August, the daily output was maintained at a level of more than 150,000 tons. In July, the daily output was slightly higher, at around 155,000 tons. Without considering the export volume from July to August in 2019, the supply increased by 900,000 tons compared with the same period last year.

Therefore, in the case of this round of Indian bidding and China's large participation, the increased supply will be offset by the export volume. And the marking period of the ship was on August 16th. After the port was in mid-July, the export volume was basically counted in August, which supported the market that was supposed to decline.

In summary, the urea market in July has both the weak support of maintenance companies and the step-down channels for exporting a large number of goods. It is a test and temper for manufacturers, especially with port advantages and domestic sales. Business.

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